Long-term Tesla Motors Battery Study from Plug in America

One of the things to consider when making the switch to an Electric Vehicle (EV) is the combination of the battery and electricity IS the fuel that is consumed to power an EV. As such, batteries and range degrade and may eventually need to be replaced. Therefore, one of the questions that these new Model 3 reservation holders ask is “how resilient is the Tesla battery?” or phrased another way, “how long will the battery last?”

The Model 3 announcement did not really cover how different or similar the battery technology in the Model 3 will be from predecessor vehicles from them. The Roadster has a different pack than the Model S and Model X. So, how does one get the comfort of knowing that “Tesla knows what they’re doing with batteries.” I suppose we can just trust them.

Fortunately, that is not our only option. Over the past few years, long-time Electric Vehicle advocate, Plug in America Chief Science Officer, and Tesla Motors Roadster owner Tom Saxton has been conducting several long-term battery studies hosted on the Plug in America site.

For those unfamiliar with Plug in America, they’re the folks that formed out of the advocates that tried to stop the “murder” of the GM EV1 and other Electric Vehicles of that era that was documented in the movie “Who Killed the Electric Car?”  Or, as they describe themselves in their webpage:

Our Mission

Plug In America drives change to accelerate the shift to plug-in vehicles powered by clean, affordable, domestic electricity to reduce our nation’s dependence on petroleum, improve air quality and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Our History

Plug In America is a coalition of early adopters. We’re the EV trailblazers – RAV4‐EV drivers, former lessees of Honda EV+, GM EV1, Ford Ranger and Ford Th!nk City electric cars – that passionately advocate for energy independence and clean air. Before 2008, we functioned as a loose network of individuals organized around various websites like dontcrush.com and saveEV1.com. We then coalesced into a chapter of the Electric Auto Association. On January 2, 2008, Plug In America became a separate California non‐profit corporation. On August 18, 2008, we became an official 501(c)(3) public charity!

The battery studies that Tom Saxton have been running for years rely on nearly semi-annual updates from respondents that drive Tesla Roadsters and Tesla Model S as well as the Nissan Leaf and the first generation Toyota RAV4 EV.  In email correspondence with Tom, he has indicated that he is looking to expand the study  in the near future to include the Model X as well.

Tom’s long-term battery study has been invaluable not only to the greater EV community but specifically to Tesla fans as well.  The take rate for participants for the Tesla Roadster study is close to a 7% sample, from what I gather and the Tesla Model S one had a healthy start, but could use more participants.

With the new range numbers from the redesigned front fascia of the vehicle, I am sure I’m not the only one to wonder what the long-term differences would be between a 90D classic fascia vs a 90D new fascia.

Providing a third party study of the effects of long-term battery health enables all concerned with a greater understanding and comfort to know “that Tesla knows what they’re doing.” Furthermore, it gives current non EV drivers a sense of comfort when making the switch to electrically fueled car ownership.

So, if you own a Tesla Roadster and haven’t participated in the study. Or perhaps you’re one of the lucky few to have upgraded to the new 3.0 battery from Tesla, please fill out the Tesla Roadster battery survey.

Perhaps you’re a Model S owner and you’d like to help add to the number of respondents to this study, fill out for the Tesla Model S battery survey.

What has Tom been able to share with the public so far.

Well, for the Roadster, he’s published an entire study three years ago including a paper entitled “Plug in America’s Tesla Roadster Battery Study.” The advent of the 3.0 battery upgrade may require a new study and the addition of almost another three years since the publication of that study might give more information to the study, but that’s entirely up to Tom and his cohorts at PiA.

The Model S Results page is more dynamic than the Roadster results publication.

I have taken screenshots as of April 27, 2016 of a few of the dynamic charts that are provided on the results charts page.

The first chart that caught my eye is the chart on the battery capacity vs. the miles that particular Model S iterations. With new EPA numbers with the launch of the new fascia should further complicate this chart.

Battery Survey - Model S Battery Capacity-Miles

This same chart can be used to also track how a particular respondent’s vehicle matches with the universe of respondents. The Vehicle in black on the chart below shows the performance of my vehicle in relation to other respondents’ cars.

Battery Survey - Model S Battery Capacity-Miles - Specific Vehicle

The third chart that was of interest is the reliability of certain components, namely the Drive Unit, battery, and chargers on the Model S. I wonder if the increased reported failures on chargers for 2014 vehicles resulted in the movement from the old chargers to the new 48A charger.

Battery Survey - Model S Major Maintenance - Model Year

Lastly, the inspiration to my exhorting fellow owners to participate in this survey was the chart of participant vehicles.

Battery Survey - Model S Survey Vehicles

For as many Model S are on the road now, I wonder as to the ability of this study, in its current count, to fully report on the vehicle with a small sample size. The Model S battery survey form is fairly straight forward and serves our common purpose. Tesla has been great, but it’s also good to have interested third parties run a check against what they claim and provide.

Tesla Weekend Social

This past Sunday, April 17, 2016, my wife and I attended the Tesla Weekend Social at the Costa Mesa (California) Sales and Service Center.

We were sent this invite a few days ahead of the first ones on April 14, 2016.

Tesla Social Invite

Tesla Weekend Social
We are excited to invite you to the launch of the Tesla Weekend Social series at your nearest Tesla location.

This new event series was designed exclusively for owners. Over a light breakfast, you’ll have the opportunity to engage with Tesla product experts, learn more about latest product features and speak with fellow owner enthusiasts. We look forward to seeing you this month as we take a closer look at Summon.

To find the event nearest you, select a date below.

We were intrigued to attend this Weekend Social and though the invitation from Tesla was to feature the Summon beta that has been deployed to Auto Pilot (AP) enabled newer Model S. Our current Tesla Model S version of AP is “yours truly” pulling the car in and out of the garage to let the better half in and out of the car.  After all, with the S and Roadster in our garage, it’s a tight fit.

Why would we join a Tesla Store event focused on a feature that we don’t and can’t use?

  1. As investors in TSLA, we wanted to see what sort of response this sort of activity does (it looks like good demand generators for S and X, or the very least solidify customer loyalty.)
    • Many people own older non-Auto Pilot Model S.  Demonstrating the features of newer Model S might be the motivation to push one over the edge to upgrade a car.
    • There is always a feeling of “what’s next” with Tesla, besides with the announcement of the new “nose” and design refresh for the Model S, I wanted to see if we would catch one “in-person”. (spoiler, we didn’t)
  2. We wanted to see what sort of thing Tesla would cover
    • It mentioned Summon, but this “Tesla Social” thing looks to be the start of something bigger, so we wanted to see what it was about.
    • I never know if there’s something new that I would pick up from others.
  3. We really like to be social with other Tesla folks. So, thought, why not?
    • Besides, the OC Tesla Club (Orange County, California) that we help organize with our good friends Mark L (and his wife Anna) and the group’s founder Tan just registered as an official Tesla Club with Tesla Motors and wanted to “lend a hand” and see if anyone else would want to join the group.
    • We expected there to be questions from new Tesla owners and thought that we can help cover anything else and free up the Tesla employees for other things.

Apparently we weren’t the only ones interested in this weekend’s activities, here is a thread on TMC on the same thing.

So, what was it like?

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We arrived at the store at 9:58 AM and proceeded to enter the facility.

There was already a crowd of folks that were asking questions of the Tesla Costa Mesa store manager, Gavin Torres, with questions.

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As you can see in the pictures, there were a bunch of folks there for this Social. I would estimate that there were 50 people that showed up to the Tesla Social. Not all were there on time, but on a rolling basis, I would guess that many.

The Summon feature, as with many Tesla features, has been demonstrated by many others in videos on Youtube and those videos were more dramatic than the Tesla Social event.

Here’s the one with the guy using it to pick him up from the rain.

Here’s one where the owner is getting the car out of its garage.

and the official video from Tesla.

The store manager at Costa Mesa had the forethought to staff for success and each group had a Tesla employee demonstrating Summon (and answering a ton of Tesla questions that had nothing to do with Summon.)

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The group we were with was interesting in that he used a pole that was in the parking lot to show how sensitive the sensors were in the car to understand the existence of the pole and route around it.

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The car he used to demonstrate the feature had to be parked closer because he had used it a few minutes prior to show the basics of Summon, and it was already parked pretty efficiently.  Having seen this feature in action before, I was interested to see if there was anything else that I could learn about it, and there was an interesting way that the instructor discussed initiating Summon from within the driver seat and the front panel without using the fob or app.

As with many places that reported on their Tesla Weekend Social activities, after the official demonstration, many were treated to a “show and tell” by those in attendance with Model X.  The Costa Mesa location was not an exception to this.

There were three Model X owners there and one did just that.

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In all, we stuck around to talk with other owners and answer questions about Tesla. the owners ranged from folks who just picked up their cars to others, like us, who’ve had their cars for years.

Was Tesla successful in getting us to upgrade our S? Not exactly… It did reaffirm our desire to have these features on our Model 3, when that gets delivered.

Since we arrived so close to the start and it seemed like they started early, I found out that the first 30 minutes prior to the start of the demonstration was spent fielding all sorts of questions from the owners that were present.  This speaks of a need for Tesla to perhaps be more thorough in their delivery process in showing folks what they need to know during the pick up.  Granted, the over the air updates change the look, feel, and behavior of the car that being trained on a feature that suddenly shows up is a challenge for Tesla.  However, taking the steps to add these Tesla Social series will allow those that suddenly have new features show up in their car with a forum to ask Tesla how to properly use these features.

It is commendable to see Tesla start to do ownership outreach in this manner throughout its Sales Centers.  In the meantime, hopefully, resources from the ownership community, such as our OC Tesla Club, Tesla Motors Club forums, Teslarati, and others can all be there to provide much needed assistance.  I’ve asked fellow OC Tesla Club members to make new owners aware of our club’s existence so we can alleviate the crush on Tesla’s employees on questions that can be easily answered and demonstrated by the owner members.

What’s the big deal with the Model 3 trunk (boot)?

I was surprised to hear about all the turmoil regarding the PROTOTYPE Model 3 trunk (boot.) One of the first places I heard about this complaint was on Jalopnik’s article This is the Tesla Model 3’s Biggest Design Fail.

In the article, Jalopnik’s Jason Torchinsky showed the following photographs:

Tesla Model 3 Trunk picture 1 - Jalopnik 4/1/2016 article

Tesla Model 3 Trunk picture 2 - Jalopnik 4/1/2016 article
Model3Ownersclub.com‘s owner/administrator TrevP (also on Twitter at @model3owners.)

Posted on the thread – The Trunk the following photo:

Wider Trunk photo from Model3Ownersclub.com

Electrek also talked about the Model 3’s Frunk titled “Opinion: Tesla’s Model 3 AWD ‘frunk’, as shown in prototypes, is just a glorified glovebox”.

Tesla Model 3 Frunk picture - Electrek 4/3/2016 article

As previously mentioned, the Model 3 designs that everyone has been discussing are prototypes. As such, I expect them to be close to what will be released, but don’t expect the cars to be exact. Remember, the Model X prototypes had cameras rather than side mirrors.  Additionally, the Model X prototypes also had the same front nose as the now classic Model S design. (black nosecone).

The prototype for the Model 3 shows a smaller car than the Model S and Model X.

Long-time readers will remember that I preferred the Active E to the Model S.  It was all about the size of the car.  I have since gotten used to the size of the Model S and it doesn’t bother me anymore.  However, I still prefer a smaller format vehicle.  My wife’s Roadster is great, but it’s her car, and it is smaller than I’m comfortable driving regularly (should she even let me borrow it to drive.)  Though I haven’t seen the Model 3 in person, I surmise based on the pictures and information that this Tesla will be closer to the BMW Active E size and definitely outperform my old, beloved BMW Active E.

So, is the trunk and frunk too small for me?  Well…  Let’s see.

I drove the BMW Active E for two years.  It was a great little car, full battery electric and a range between 80-100 miles.  As for the trunk, there was a reason that I used to drive the car to do our Costco Wholesale shopping.

Here is a picture of the BMW Active E Trunk.  The Active E labeled portion of the trunk is the motor for the car.  Beside the motor is a full laptop/briefcase and that was pretty much it for space.  So, when I shop at Costco, I saved money.

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The trunk had a little more space and there are two shelves under the floor.  One fits several tools and the like and below that is space for the emergency Level One EVSE (110V.)

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Here’s the one for the Level 1 EVSE.

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Though the car seems to have minimal space, I proved that back in 2012… Looks can be deceiving.  So, a “small” Model 3 trunk, probably not an issue for me.

Just to remind folks, the Model 3 isn’t the only Tesla with a small trunk.  Check out the Tesla Roadster trunk below, it’s big enough to carry a set of golf clubs… For the driver OR the passenger.

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Folks are disappointed in the Model 3 trunk size because they have the Model S to compare it to.

Here’s a loaner we had during our charging disaster with the Roadster.

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Here is the Model S from Quicksilver Car Service that we used when we picked up our Model S at the factory.

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It had plenty of room for luggage.

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With the classic Model S with a single motor that we have, the frunk has a LOT of room as well.  So much so that we now carry a spare tire in it when we do our roadtrips.

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For a comparison, the Dual Drive Frunk on a Model S 70D loaner that I used in September 2015 is markedly smaller than the frunk on our classic Model S.

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Since we didn’t opt for the Premium Sound package, we get side storage on both sides of the trunk.  I’ve always found it the best place to bring home some flowers for the better half.

The space in the back of the .@TeslaMotors Model S is perfect to make my wife smile with some roses... Just because!

So, yes. I can see both sides of this. Tesla knows how to make a hatchback, but should they make the Model 3 a hatchback? Perhaps they will, perhaps they won’t. At the end of the day, it’s a PROTOTYPE, so Tesla can still change things. Personally, I’m fine with the trunk space. It’s not what attracted me to the car anyway. Besides, if they keep the trunk as is. I would probably save a lot of money at Costco. 😉

Now, if they can make the Model 3 a Coupe… Or better yet, a hardtop convertible… That’s an option I would love.

Was our line the slowest during Model 3 Release Day

It’s been exactly a week since we placed our reservation for a Tesla Model 3 (the wonders of scheduling the publication of a blog post.)  Since we already drive Teslas, the long wait is bearable.  The wait in line to reserve one, however…  Let me share our experience and you can decide for yourself.

Before the stores were even open to take reservations, I tried to give Tesla our money…

There were many who camped overnight, like the ones in Rocklin, CA.

Not too many had to endure what the hardy souls in Montreal had to with the rain and cold.

Still, we left home early for a 10:00 AM launch, but later than many.

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My mom has decided to upgrade her recently replaced Leaf (the original one was totaled by an SUV) by the time the Model 3 is launched and we were not going to have her camp overnight.

We arrived at our first nearest Tesla sales center – Buena Park.  The Buena Park location is one that took over a former auto dealership location and is a consolidated, Sales, Service, and Delivery (and soon a Supercharger.)

The line at this location was long and was out the door and down the street.  As we drove up to it, we estimated it to be closer to 120+ people in line. The parking lot was full and all the street parking near it was taken.  The nearest place to park was quite a ways from the location and I had my mom with us.  So, we proceeded to our backup store – Brea Mall.

We arrived at Brea Mall and found parking and walked throughout the mall, past the Apple Store which was having its iPhone 5SE launch.

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The line at Starbucks was longer than the one for Apple:

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And then there is the Model 3 line:

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(thanks to Mark Z for this next picture)

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Here’s mom with the LONG line that we stood in:

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We walked past the Tesla store and start of the line and got to the end of the line by 9:15 AM. We didn’t know what number we were in line until about 30 minutes later when our friend Mark Z swung by and was counting people in line and notified us that we were 240-242 in line.  

Here’s Mark Z catching me in line at 242… (thanks to Mark Z for this next picture)

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On his loop back on his way to another store,  he had completed his count at 320, many more added to the total as he left.

We spoke with the folks immediately before and after us in line for the Model 3 and found out that everyone around us are new to EVs and currently in ICE cars. We got to know them as we ended up spending many hours with them. The Brea location started the order process on time at 10:00 AM Pacific. During the wait and before the start of the order process my mom asked the guy in the front of the line what time he got there and he said he arrived around 3:00 AM Around 12:15 PM, we were still pretty far from the store and I shot this video:

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Around 1:30 PM we finally have the store and the roped part of the line in sight.

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We still had a ways to go, but at least we can see the store.

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Remember our friend Mark Z? He returned to our location after driving from Brea to the Costa Mesa Delivery and Sales Center (up the block from the Service Center.)

He took this picture of the line around 2:00 PM.

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Apparently, he was 220 in line in Costa Mesa when he arrived at that location at 10:15 AM and was done with his reservation in time to catch us as we continued to stand in line.

Near the front of the line, Tesla provided some FAQs (thanks again to Mark Z):

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Here we are finally in the front of the line:

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And Mark Z taking the picture as we were being called into the store…

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When we got back into the store we were sent to another line. Apparently this store had three employees taking orders for those in line. We sat in the same line as my mom as I was there to assist her if she needed some clarification.

If you squint you can see us on the right side.

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While waiting in the store for our turn, three more Tesla employees showed up with computers and iPads to take orders, they were augmenting this store from the Buena Park location that we had originally skipped in the morning. We were among the first of three in-store folks that “got the benefit” of a 100% increase in order takers. 😉

And so, we’re finally taking mom’s order (picture courtesy of Mark Z again).

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and this next one too.

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We were all set to order one Model 3 each. But when mom was filling hers out, she figured to reserve for two. Not sure what she’ll do with two, but that was good. Perhaps she might just gift a Model 3 for each of my nephews (her grandsons) or perhaps she’ll cycle through three EVs.

Rather than have the employee have to go through my long Tesla email, I asked if I can just go ahead and fill out the web page quickly and he let me go at it. So, I started filling out the form, and the drop down said 1 or 2 Model 3. I looked over to my wife, and she said to go for two. Who am I to argue?

Finally… success:

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From the time we jumped in line at 9:15 AM and from the time that the doors opened at 10:00 AM, we didn’t complete our last reservation until 2:16 PM. That means for the approximately 4.25 hours since the line opened, this store was processing 1 order every 1.06 minute.

The email to confirm our order popped up in our emails (my mom’s and mine) approximately 18 hours and 20 minutes later. And for those of us who are already Tesla owners, it was in our My Tesla account another day later. People have been tracking what Reservation Numbers they’ve been getting to see if there is any pattern (on teslamotors.com forum and for UK ones at SpeakEV.) For the sake of privacy folks have been deleting the last few digits for the RN and I have provided the following information:

Pacific Timezone 3/31/2016 14:16:00 Dennis RN10792
Pacific Timezone 3/31/2016 14:16:00 Dennis RN10884
Pacific Timezone 3/31/2016 14:14:00 Mom RN10892
Pacific Timezone 3/31/2016 14:14:00 Mom RN10892

Folks around the forums are trying to figure out a pattern. I can share that Mom’s two reservations are about 4200 apart from each other.

Having a week between the reservation for two Model 3 and over a year and a half (at least) wait for taking delivery of one or two Model 3s, I’ve justified to myself what a second 3 would be equal to. It’s roughly the same cost as upgrading the Roadster to 3.0. However, unlike the Roadster 3.0 battery, if we’re early enough, we could apply for the Tax Credit for the Model 3.

It was a long wait in line and an even longer wait for the “configure your Model 3 email.” I guess the blog content is going to increase from Model S and Roadster to include Model 3 (unless we happen to pick up a CPO Model X in the meantime.)

So, last week’s EV Week has gotten to be pretty epic.

I wonder if our 4.25 hours since store opening is the longest for someone who was 240-242nd in line.